Posts Tagged Analysis
Math vs. A-Rod
Posted by Potato Chowder in Uncategorized on June 4th, 2009
Honestly, I don’t know where to start on this. After Selena Roberts’s claims that A-Rod was tipping pitches were discredited by every single reputable source, Abraham still carries it like an idiot torch.
Here he cites a former beat writer:
Miguel Tejada, then with Oakland, hit .350 overall against the Rangers, but jumped to .472 when the margin was at least five runs either way. He had nine homers in 36 at-bats when the margin was at least five. Rodriguez, who hit .284 against Oakland overall, hit .333 when the score was five or greater.
Seattle’s Carlos Guillen, a teammate of Rodriguez’s for three seasons with the Mariners, went from .307 to .318. in “out of hand” situations. Rodriguez, however, jumped from .264 to .391 against the Mariners in those situations.
First of all, 36 at-bats? Second, of course your average is going to go up in blowouts. That’s when scrub pitchers are in and hitters are teeing off. But most interestingly, you’re telling me that you can tell Carlos Guillen exactly what pitch is coming and his average only goes up 11 points?
I should also point out that, by this criteria, a serious investigation should be organized to find out if Josh Beckett is tipping his pitches to Derek Jeter (.341 vs carreer .316) and if domed stadiums are tipping pitches to Sal Fasano (.240 vs career .221).
It should be noted that Peter Abraham has an honorary degree in Predictive Analytics from the University of Phoenix.
Pete KNOWS ARod tipped pitches. Just ask him.
Posted by Green Cabbage in Analysis on May 2nd, 2009
It is well documented that Peter Abraham really doesn’t like A-Rod. His latest shot at A-Rod is regarding the allegations from Selena Roberts that A-Rod was tipping pitches to opposing batters so he could get garbage-time hits.
Defenders of Rodriguez are quick to point out — and correctly so — that many players were using PEDs during what we now call the Steroids Era. It is unfair to make him the face of baseball’s drug problem.
But not even Barry Bonds or Mark McGwire would have told the opposition what was coming. If A-Rod is found to have put his own meaningless statistics ahead of the legitimacy of the game, even his most ardent supporters would have trouble excusing that.
UPDATE, 12:58 p.m.: I stand corrected. A-Rod’s supporters apparently have no trouble whatsoever defending anything he does based on the comments to this post. It’s amazing how everything he did is either somebody else’s fault or simply shouldn’t have been reported in the first place.
There are so many things wrong with that statement, I’m not sure where to start.
Yeah sure, Bonds wouldn’t have told the opposing hitters what pitches were coming. Cause well, you know, he played LEFT FIELD!
Photographic evidence of Barry doing the deed
There’s also the fact that Abraham takes Selena Roberts’s word at face value. I mean, good lord, grow a spine man. You’re supposedly a reporter, right? Do some reporting and get some kind of confirmation on this before spouting all this self-righteous crap.
Then there’s the big elephant in the room. Just how likely is it that A-Rod tipped those pitches? Everyone who played with A-Rod is saying it’s not likely he could have done it. How could he have seen the catcher’s signs from SS with a RH batting anyway?
TBIC’s crack team of math geeks did some back-of-the-envelope calculations and here’s what we’ve found.
Looking at A-Rod’s MVP year in Texas, the 1 or 2 late inning hits he had in blowouts/dominated games that we could find are easily explainable by pitchers throwing strikes because it’s a runaway game. You can see it in what the other hitters do that inning. And another thing is in blowout games Alex always got replaced late. It just wasn’t happening at all.
If he wasn’t benefiting from this there is no way he was giving up signs for other players.
I genuinely looked for something in 2003 and saw nothing. I checked every team he played and lost against for some kind of late inning stat padding. There was nothing. I listed some games that I think are way too close to consider but included them anyway, for example April 2nd. No one is really giving A-Rod a chance to hit a 3-run bomb when you only have a 7 run lead in the 5th.
2003
April 1 vs Angels, A-Rod goes 1 for 4 with his hit in the 3rd. Texas loses 0-10. Batting .222 .222 .556
April 2 vs Angels, A-Rod goes 1 for 5 with a 3 run HR in the 5th while the score was 1-8. Texas loses 5-11. Batting .214 .214 .643
April 6 vs Mariners, A-Rod goes 0 for 3. Texas loses 2-11. Batting .240 .296 .640
April 9 vs Athletics, A-Rod goes 3 for 4. Single in 1st w/ no score, RBI Double in 3rd w/ a score of 0-2, Single in 5th w/ 1-8 score, 7th inning K w/ score 4-8. Texas loses 5-13. Batting .281 .343 .625
April 12 vs Mariners, A-Rod goes 1 for 2. 2 run HR in 1st, K in the 5th w/ score 2-8, HBP in 7th. Texas loses 4-13. Batting .293 .383 .634
May 6 vs Blue Jays, A-Rod goes 1 for 3. Single in 1st. Flyout in 5th w/ 4-15 score. Replaced in 7th. Texas loses 5-15. Batting .344 .427 .656
May 15 vs Red Sox, A-Rod goes 0 for 2. Walk in 8th w/ 2-12 score. Texas loses 3-12. Batting .323 .410 .600
May 24 vs Orioles, A-Rod goes 2 for 4. Single in 3rd w/ 0-0 score, HR in 6th w/ 2-1 score, K in 8th w/ 3-10 score. Texas loses 3-10. Batting .302 .386 .582
May 30 vs Orioles, A-Rod goes 2 for 4. Single in 6th w/ 1-5 score, Double in 8th w/ 1-8 score. Texas loses 1-8. Batting .298 .384 .577
May 31 vs Orioles, A-Rod goes 0 for 3. Walk in 8th (following a Blalock single) w/ 1-5 score. Texas loses 1-7. Batting .294 .382 .569
June 12 vs Mets, A-Rod goes 0 for 4. Flyball in 9th (following a Blalock single) Texas loses 0-11. Batting .298 .381 .556
June 15 vs Marlins, A-Rod goes 2 for 5. Single in 3rd w/ 2-3 score, Single in 8th (followed by Everett HR) w/ 2-9 score. Texas loses 4-10. Batting .296 .380 .542
June 20 vs Astros, A-Rod goes 2 for 4. RBI Double in 1st w/ 0-0 score, HR in 8th w/ 2-5 score. Texas loses 3-12. Batting .301 .383 .562
June 26 vs Athletics, A-Rod goes 1 for 3. Single in 1st w/ 0-1 score. K in 6th w/ 0-13 score. Replaced in 8th. Texas loses 0-13. Batting .296 .380 .549
July 11 vs Royals, A-Rod goes 1 for 3. Single in 4th w/ 0-4 score, K in 8th w/ 3-12 score. Texas loses 3-13. Batting .290 .378 .555
July 20 vs Rays, A-Rod goes 1 for 3. Single in 6th (followed by Teixeira single, A-Rod scores) w/ 1-13 score, replaced in 6th. Texas loses 4-15. Batting .279 .371 .531
August 21 vs White Sox, A-Rod goes 1 for 4. HR in 6th (followed by Palmeiro HR and Teixeira flyball) w/ 0-4 score, Groundout in 8th w/ 3-7 score. Texas loses 3-7. Batting .305 .399 .605
August 22 vs White Sox, A-Rod goes 1 for 4. Double in 5th w/ 0-4 score. K in 7th w/ 1-5 score. Texas loses 1-7. Batting .304 .398 .604
August 23 vs White Sox, A-Rod goes 0 for 2. Flyball in 6th (preceded by Blalock flyball and followed by Palmeiro single) w/ 1-10 score. Replaced in 8th. Texas loses 2-13. Batting .303 .398 .602
August 27 vs Royals, A-Rod goes 0 for 4. Flyball in 8th (preceded by Young flyball) w/ score. Replaced in 8th. Texas loses 0-9. Batting .302 .396 .597
So yeah, nothing. But don’t let that stop you from pushing whatever agenda it is you’re trying to push, Pete. That analysis took one heroic TBIC editor an hour or so to compile and it’s not like he gets paid to do this.